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Base Rate Neglect as a Source of Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination
Statistical discrimination relies on people inferring unobservable characteristics of group members based on their beliefs about the groups. Across four pre-registered experiments (N = 9,002), we show that accurate information about the demographics of top performers induces incorrect beliefs and leads to discrimination against numerically smaller groups. Participants are less likely to hire women when they receive information about the composition of top performers in a male-dominated candidate pool, even when there are no gender differences in performance, and are less likely to hire better-performing non-White candidates when the racial demographics of the candidate pool reflect the US population. We show that these choices reflect an error in statistical reasoning, rather than being motivated by a desire to discriminate against any particular group. Despite leading to less accurate beliefs, we find that when given the choice, participants disproportionally seek out information about top performers and discrimination persists when information selection is endogenous.