OB Research Seminar - John Antonakis, HEC Lausanne

Postmortem. Why Trump won and most did not see it coming

Thursday 21 November 2024 - 12h00 to 13h00

Extranef 126

Speaker(s): John Antonakis HEC Lausanne

I will present the updated election model of Jacquart and Antonakis (2015) to predict the U.S. presidential election outcome. I will discuss what we did to improve the model predictions, demonstrate its out of sample performance, and explain why it gave a reasonably accurate prediction for the 2024 election. I will briefly present too other prediction models and discuss some possible reasons why most of them missed the mark. Finally I will also conjecture on strategic mistakes that the Democrats probably made, and why the Harris campaign was doomed from the start.

KEYWORDS
Published from 2 September 2024 to 21 November 2024
Department of Organizational Behavior
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